This year we have seen big developments in social media marketing, mobile marketing, online shopping and SEO since the Panda update, and much more.
We all know these will grow hugely in 2012, but rather than repeat what we already know, what are our top predictions for 2012? We have looked at some areas that we think are going to see interesting developments...
Increases in bandwidth, touchscreen and mobile have helped us to deliver on demand services and real time communication based services in 2011 that would have been more familiar on the bridge of the Star Ship Enterprise ten years ago, so what's in store for 2012?
It seems that 'Minority Report' style gesture based devices are on the verge of becoming a reality next year. XTR3D is a developer working in the field of motion capture technology, and it has just received $8m (£5m) investment to give "touchless" technology a push. The firm believes they can bring the first 'touchless' smart phone to the market as soon as 2012.
What do we think? HOT!
Gesture based technology is already becoming prevalent in the gaming sphere with Xbox Kinect appearing in peoples' front rooms. 'Touchless' TV & Infotainment Systems will be big in 2012, but the spread of touchscreen interfacing and Siri style voice based systems will be the most visible development for most users.
We think Tom Cruise will see reality beginning to resemble his 2002 box office hit Minority Report towards the end of 2012.
2. .com Boom or.com Bubble?
The dot-com bubble was a stock market bubble which popped to near-devastating effect in 2001. It grew by the rise of Internet sites and the tech industry and many of these companies went under and many investors lost substantial sums of money.
After LinkedIn's massive IPO in May, it has prompted a lot of smaller younger companies to look at taking the leap. However LinkedIn saw declines in shares since the initial short term trading peak in value and this has been reflected in the smaller IPOs since.
Groupon want to get big quick, but have steadily seen their shares slide back towards their IPO price since the initial hype. Lots of investors consider the company too young to have genuine long term strength on the market.
Zynga also underperformed on their IPO and others like YELP have been met with mixed anticipation.
Generally, the trend has been short term gains and hype at the launch, followed by a swift deflation in value. On that basis it may be worth asking what the real value of these shares actually is. Other than those looking to make quick buck, who is going to look to invest for the long term based on that trend?
Part of the reason is that many web companies are using IPOs to finance growth on the back of expected growth from the monies raised. As a result, they are limiting the amount of shares they sell in order to retain the value in the company for investors.
This means that high demand driven by social media hype and a lack of shares on the supply side leads to over-inflated stock values.
What do we think? NOT!
The reality is that there will be a surge in IPOs on the back of LinkedIn, and investing in Tech is a safer bet than most, but there are only a limited number of companies out there with considerable value and most of the IPOs are gambles to fuel growth and offer value for the organisations, but not necessarily for investors. Until a Facebook IPO, the 'bubble' only looks set to grow, and 2012 may end up leaving investors feeling a little deflated!
3. Search marketing and social marketing become one in 2012
Social media is becoming an integral part of everything we do when promoting our business and when fulfilling search marketing strategies for clients.
Anyone working in the industry will know that it is already pretty hard to tell where search ends and content marketing, social media and PR begin.
As the web becomes more real time and search engines use more social factors to value content, social media will continue to grow in its importance as an integral part of the marketing mix.
As for the search engines, Google doesn't look over its shoulder at Yahoo or Bing these days, but more at in-platform search on social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter. Google+ isn't just about giving Google a social platform – YouTube already does this to some extent – but it does allow them to start to blur the line between their search and social product.
What do we think? HOT!
In 2012 the integration between search and social will become blurred, with peer review becoming the dominant ranking factor and in site search on Facebook, Twitter and Google/YouTube/Google+ becoming more important.
Social media will begin to stop being seen as a separate marketing activity all together but an integral part of more traditional activities such as PR, Search, Advertising and Branding in the digital sphere.
The reason for this is pretty clear: Social media isn't a type of media or channel at all – it is a label that highlights the way in which media is changing - how all media is becoming more two way, real time and interactive over time.
4. Patent Wrangling to continue in 2012
These are prosperous times for lawyers, as every major player in the mobile phone industry decides that patents are important weapons in the battle for ruling over the smartphone market.
2011 saw everybody is suing everyone else, claiming they were the first to think of the ideas at the heart of this new industry. Apple and Microsoft are now involved in a new patent race over 'touchless' gesture-controls amongst other things.
What Do We Think? HOT!
2011 was just the beginning. With technology evolving to the point at which gestures are a critical part of an OS there is no sign of the war of crazy patents ending in 2012. Lets hope it doesn't end up killing off any major innovations for the rest of us!
5. Augmented Reality VS Virtual Reality
Is 2012 going to see major innovations in the break down between data and the real world through technology like Augmented reality, or are we going to focus on trying to create more meaningful and life like experiences in the digital world through platforms that seek to mimic the real world social signals and emotions online?
Looking at Augmented reality first, fashion retailer Topshop set up a virtual fitting room in Moscow, allowing shoppers to try on clothes just by standing in front of a mirror. A built-in camera recognizes a human body and superimposes a 3D model of a garment; users can switch clothes using simple gestures.
Brands are also using augmented reality to engage shoppers. Ikea developed an app to give customers the ability to see exactly how the new designs will look in their home, without the need to actually move any furniture!
More information is appearing in our phones to help us interpret the world around us. Augmented reality is already with us, but other than for navigation, it hasn't become the norm.
At the same time, platform developers are still trying to make the online experience of using their platforms to be social more fulfilling.
The reality is that social media platforms are rather antisocial compared to real life, where every look and gesture tells a story and you can sense someone's emotional state. Platforms such as Shakerapp seek to create a social space online that is a lot more engaging and the gaming industry have created whole worlds online that people invest as much emotional value in as they do their real lives.
What do we think? Augmented Reality NOT! Virtual Reality HOT!
Augmented reality has a long way to come because the hardware is expensive and interfacing is not up to scratch to make it really work. Try walking down the high street holding your mobile phone up in front of your face and see how long you stay on your feet – that is if bandwidth allows you to see anything at all.
At the same time the economic downturn may offer an opportunity for retailers to differentiate themselves with slick in-store AR services, but whilst spending is decreasing, expensive investments in more experiential AR based retail spaces in unlikely.
Until we can project information into the real world in a more intuitive manner, augmented reality will primarily consist of your Satnav for 2012.
On the other hand the competition for audiences in the virtual world is driving the development of a richer online experience all the time. Twitter and Facebook have enhanced their interface more than once in 2011 and the online experience desperately needs to be more fulfilling in order to allow platforms to make revenue through advertising.
Also developers have a natural desire to make richer, more complex applications, so there is more willingness and likelihood that rich online experience will be developed over Augmented Reality.
Whilst we think the future belongs to AR, we think 2012 is going to belong to VR.
6. Cyber Wars!
In 2010 the media was alive with reports of 'cyberwars.' Whilst this terminology conjures up thrilling images of R2D2 playing with 3CPOs joystick for some, the reality is that the label 'cyberwar' has become de-rigueur in the media for any attempted hack or DNS attack on an organisation larger than your local fruit and veg store.
The reality is that no one really knows what a cyberwar is or what it looks like yet. There isn't a legal basis for it in international law and it hasn't been defined properly in any literature I have been able to get hold of.
However, the increasing frequency of announcements by governments of cyber espionage and 'attacks' using the likes of Stuxnet and Duqu is driving calls for governments and international bodies to ramp up their own security legal infrastructures in this field.
It is believed in some quarters that China is readying itself strategically for battles of the future to be electronic in nature, and it is likely that the US and Russia already have significant investment in this area.
What do we think? CyberWars NOT!
Expect reports of 'cyberwarfare' to pop up regularly in the media, but don't expect that these will really be cyberwars. Most events that currently get defined as cyber attacks are economic in nature, and until the law of warfare is extended to this arena or a major power openly defines an electronic attack an act of war, cyberwars will remain decidedly cold in nature, and squarely in a box entitled espionage.
Expect one major political story in 2012 around cyber espionage and wider global moves to try and define the legal basis for the future of cyber warfare.
7. The Underground Internet
With the introduction of a possible Internet censorship bill in the US, will this just give rise to an 'underground Internet?' Many 'Hackivists' and regular members of the public are very worried about the SOPA Bill and its implications, in particular the DNS blocking powers it will create.
The very nature of the internet makes it very difficult to control and monitor in its entirety. It was designed to be that way in the event of a nuclear war that knocked out major communications hubs, data would reroute through alternative hubs. This means it should be easy to circumvent controls on information for those in the know.
There are already a few ways to navigate the Internet anonymously, free from censorship, relying on P2P software. These methods are still in their early stages and are not quite quick or reliable enough to use on a regular basis. The leading examples of such software are Freenet and Tor. The downside to such anonymity is its inherent nature to attract unwanted attention from those who want use it for unsavoury purposes. This is what some of the new Internet regulations are trying to stop, albeit in a heavy-handed way that curtails the genuine, free-flow of information.
However it seems P2P networks have drawbacks, and there are groups that feel that they need to take matters into their own hands if they are to carry on their activities online – be they good or bad.
There are rumours of a bunch of Hacktivists in Northern Europe attempting to setup an alternative internet by setting up their own hardware that they control and that sites can host themselves on. The idea of this is to allow sites like Pirate Bay who distribute copy written materials illegally to continue to function. Technically this isn't difficult, but getting people to run their websites on it or actually plug into it is another matter all together!
Interestingly, there are also stories that the US administration are trying to build their own, small version of the Internet, termed "shadow Internet" to help opposing parties in Iran, Libya etc. This aims to help them avoid the monitoring and blockading of the nation's own networks to help them realise a free connection between each other and the outside world.
What do we think? NOT!
Making an alternative, censorship free version of the Internet into reality will rely on interested parties to get together and lay down solid specifications. Also, the idea that it will develop purely for a positive and noble cause is possibly a little idealist.
However, the reality in history is that where regulation, control and censorship begins to encroach on peoples' lives, initially the black market and those that seek to circumvent such controls will find ways to get around this. So whilst we think the idea of an underground or alternative internet is still a not, watch this space!
8. The Good, The Bad and the Transparent: Using digital comms to drive cultural innovation
What will a successful company look like at the end of 2012?
Many would look at the current economic situation and say that a company that is still trading at the end of 2012 is a good company – but in my opinion that's a little unhelpful. Perhaps the bar should be a little higher.
They say that every crisis presents an opportunity. If we are going to have the economic downturn of all downturns (and I am not saying we will), then by thinking and acting differently perhaps you can steal the march on your competitors. Digital and social media offers many organisations just that opportunity.
If your organisation chooses to embrace the cultural changes that are happening and grasp the opportunities that it presents, then perhaps this can be a period of growth for you. Here are some ideas for you to consider in 2012.
REALLY act as you wish to be perceived – I mean REALLY: With the increasing transparency in companies and organisations that social media and the media empowerment of the individual is bringing those companies, there is an argument to say that those companies that do not engender best practice, a positive approach towards their employees and customers and a morally positive agenda in the way they do business are on the edge of a precipice where sooner or later they are going to get found out. Keeping secrets, many say, is impossible in todays connected world and whilst you can polish a turd, it remains a turd and you cannot gloss over the smell. Marketing and customer service should be at the heart of your company – they should be your whole company.
Engender a culture of communication and innovation: How much time does your staff spend in emails, travelling to meetings and organising drafts and redrafts of documents with dozens of amends? STOP IT! The use of tools like Instant messaging, video conferencing, Google Docs and micro blogs could massively increase your productivity with little or no cost or effort on your behalf.
Email is good for some things. It is not good for everything.
A mix of training, empowerment and provision of alternative tools could bring tiny changes in working practices that deliver big results.
Listen and Learn: There are also opportunities to exploit the transparency and amount of data available on the Internet today if you choose to measure, monitor, listen and learn from it.
If you work in marketing and you still think you control your own brand and message, then it's time to consider a career change. You never did have any control over how people see your company, at best you have influence. However at least today you can get an idea of what people are thinking and start to talk to them, albeit on their terms.
YOU can also begin to understand how people use digital media and adapt your own activity based on that.
What do we think? HOT!
It's at the heart of what we do and who we are at Organic. Digital Communications affect every area of your business and fundamentally our everyday lives. Ignore this at your peril. The companies that grab the headlines in 2012 for being successful will be the ones that use digital communicators and technology to drive cultural innovations within their organisation and customers.
And Finally:
This is our list of predictions for 2012, but what we're really interested in is what YOU think! At Organic we are excited by what is to come in 2012, so let us know what YOU think will be HOT in 2012.
Have a great Christmas and Happy New Year!
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